Forbush Effect and the May 2024 Aurora in Georgia: Application of the HAVOK Method in Cosmic Ray Analysis

Abstract

The Forbush decrease — a sudden and temporary reduction in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays — is one of the key physical processes driven by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and dynamic variations of the interplanetary magnetic field. These phenomena are closely linked to space weather and can cause both technological disruptions (e.g., satellite communication failures) and spectacular optical effects such as auroras. In May 2024, Georgia experienced a rare event — the naked-eye observation of aurora — associated with an extreme geomagnetic storm and a concurrent Forbush decrease. Such manifestations are extremely uncommon at Georgia’s latitude and provide a unique opportunity to study how global solar activity is reflected in regional cosmic ray variations. This paper describes the mechanism of the Forbush effect, examines the May 2024 event, applies the HAVOK method for the analysis of cosmic ray data, and incorporates both local observations (from the Tbilisi Neutron Monitor) and global datasets