https://openlibrary.ge/handle/123456789/644 2026-04-22T14:52:34Z https://openlibrary.ge/handle/123456789/10658 Title: Modeling the Distribution of Mean Max Hail Damage to Vineyards on the Territory of Kakheti (Georgia) using Data of the Freezing Level in the Atmosphere and Radar Measurements Authors: Pipia, M., G.; Amiranashvili, A., G.; Elizbarashvili, E., Sh.; Varazanashvili, O., Sh.; Beglarashvili, N., G.; Jamrishvili, N., K. Abstract: Results of modeling of the distribution of monthly mean max hail damage to vineyards (HDV) and their 99% values of the lower and upper levels (HDV_Low, HDV_Upp) on the territory of Kakheti (Georgia) are presented. Calculations have been carried out using data of the freezing level in the atmosphere and radar measurements of hail max sizes in clouds, also known information about degree of damage to vineyards, depending on the size of the fallen hail. The agricultural area of Kakheti (7050 km2) was divided into 290 squares, the range of heights - 0.21 ÷ 1.19 km. Period of investigation - from April to September. As example map of the distribution of HDV on the territory of Kakheti for May have been built. Data on statistical characteristics on HDV, HDV_Low and HDV_Upp from April to September are presented. The vertical distribution of HDV and HDV_Upp on the indicated territory was studied. It is shown that the calculated values of HDV are in satisfactory agreement with their actual values obtained during the inspection of hail-damaged areas by special commissions. 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://openlibrary.ge/handle/123456789/9501 Title: Connection of sum light aeroions concentration with natural gamma radiation and air temperature in western Georgia Authors: Amiranashvili, A. G. Abstract: Results of investigation of connection of sum light aeroions concentration (N) with environmental gamma radiation (Γ) and air temperature (T) in western Georgia are presented. Simultaneous measurements of N, Γ and T were made at 166 different points by using portable aeroions, gamma and temperature survey meters. The terrain height (H) varied from 6 to 1928 m above sea level. The statistical characteristics of the values of N, Г and T have been studied. In particular, the following results were obtained. Range of changes of investigation parameters is following: N – 450÷3100 sm-3, Γ - 40÷180 nSv/h, T - 10÷34 ˚C. Mean values: N – 1898 sm-3, Γ - 80 nSv/h, T – 24.6 ˚C. Coefficient of linear correlation (R) of individual values of N with Г, T and H accordingly are: 0.08 (level of signification α=0.25), 0.30 (α<0.005) and 0.12 (α=0.10). It is absent correlation between Г and T.A multiple linear regression equation N with Г, T and H is obtained. In particular, the variability of the individual N values with the variability of other studied parameters within the variation range is as follows (166 different points of measurements): Г – 6.9 %, T – 61.0 % and H – 47.1 %. Thus, the main factor in the variability of the content of light air ions in this case is not the ionizing effect of gamma radiation from the soil, but the air temperature (variability of radon emanation from the soil) and the height of the terrain (variability of cosmic radiation).Connection of the averaged values of N on the Г has the form of a linear function: N = 2.9228•Γ + 1671.2 (R = 0.96, α<0.005). 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://openlibrary.ge/handle/123456789/9440 Title: The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their two-week interval prediction in summer 2021 Authors: Amiranashvili, A. G.; Khazaradze, K,.R.; Japaridze, N. D Abstract: The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There were clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. From June to August 2021, the epidemiological situation with Covid-19 in Georgia became very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from June 01, 2021 to August 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in summer 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 159 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in August 2021 Georgia was in the 1 place on new infection cases and on Death. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in summer 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 66.0 % (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), the smallest 6.0 % (09.07.2021). The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6208 (17.08.2021), R = 6177 (29.08.2021), D = 79 (26.08.2021 and 31.08.2021), I = 13.0 % (17.08.2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 5019 (2 Decade of August 2021), R = 4822 (3 Decade of August 2021), D = 69 (3 Decade of August 2021), I = 10.88 % (2 Decade of August 2021). It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 and in spring 2021 [7,8], from June to August 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the summer 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +134 cases/day (1 Decade of August 2021), V(R) = +134 cases/day (2 Decade of August 2021), V(D) = +2.4 cases/day (3 Decade of August 2021), V(I) = + 0.25 %/ day (1 decades of August 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 19 days after infection (RC=0.95), and deaths - after 16 and 18 days (RC=0.94). In Georgia in the summer 2021, the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to two months. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in summer 2021 two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. With September 1, 2021, it is started monthly forecasting of C, D and I values. As earlier, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://openlibrary.ge/handle/123456789/9439 Title: The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their short-term interval prediction in spring 2021 Authors: Amiranashvili, A. G.; Khazaradze, K. R.; Japaridze, N. D. Abstract: The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from March 01, 2021 to May 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. The information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in spring 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 156 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in May 2021 Georgia was in the 11 place on new infection cases and in the 14 place on Death. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in spring 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 25.3 % (22.05.2021), the smallest 1.42 % (15.03.2021). Data about infection rate of the population of Georgia with Covid-19 according to traffic light system shown, that Georgia in April and May 2021 was in the red zone. The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 2171 (05.05.2021), R = 2038 (17.05.2021), D = 33 (22.05.2021), I = 8.05 % (04.05.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 1258 (3 Decade of April 2021), R = 1283 (2 Decade of May 2021), D = 24 (2 Decade of May 2021), I = 6.54 % (1 Decade of May 2021). It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 [8], in spring 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the spring 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +37 cases/day (1 Decade of April 2021), V(R) = +36 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(D) = +0.6 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(I) = + 0.17 %/ day (2 and 3 decades of April 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 9 and 13 days after infection, and deaths - after 12-17 days. Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods. The comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z